![]() ![]() The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. ![]() Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Zhang, Ling Nan, Zhuotong Yu, Wenjun Ge, Yingchun Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions. The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Hydrological response to climate change in a glaciated catchment in the Himalayas The maximum seasonal changes recorded under the Tmp+4Â☌, Prp+10% scenario. Temperature changes from 1Â☌ to 4Â☌ produce a large increase in spring and summer runoff, while no major variation was observed in the winter and autumn runoff. Under all the warmer scenarios, the increase in temperature systematically decreases the mean annual snow melt and increases significantly glacier melt volume. The developed scenarios are based on changes in precipitation (Prp and temperature (Tmp and their combination. The hydrological response is analyzed through changes in snowmelt, ice melt and total runoff simulated through the application of the hydrological modeling system PREVAH under hypothetically developed climate change scenarios. This study is an attempt to assess hydrological response towards climatic variability of the Hunza catchment located in the mountainous chain of greater Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH region. The climate model choice.Ī Hydrological Response Analysis Considering Climatic Variability: Case Study of Hunza Catchmentĭirectory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)įull Text Available The hydrological response of mountainous catchments particularly dependent on melting runoff is very vulnerable to climatic variability. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). ![]() The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes. ![]() Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change ![]()
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